Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 106.264520 121.091350 137.661040 157.627981 181.137510 208.061236 241.404216
2026-02-08 84.186695 102.542478 124.765526 153.917724 191.544748 239.012824 304.290627
2026-02-15 70.612440 90.236689 115.422684 150.623158 199.364369 265.707006 365.016243
2026-02-22 65.202203 86.829057 116.025338 159.181392 222.847825 315.792488 466.549931
2026-03-01 59.015956 81.234715 112.483453 160.851134 236.092914 352.702479 555.588824
2026-03-08 54.193529 76.784174 109.720870 162.839657 249.537455 391.507284 655.371546
2026-03-15 49.698002 72.196172 106.041747 162.637439 259.055259 425.023151 752.904308
2026-03-22 47.823650 71.281184 107.732003 171.036138 283.896442 488.894265 921.961934
2026-03-29 45.863658 69.970775 108.554329 177.944125 307.020952 553.744825 1109.933763
2026-04-05 43.879213 68.382430 108.678416 183.534968 328.447254 619.241231 1317.500777
2026-04-12 41.423529 65.758409 106.735846 185.062088 342.173591 671.594320 1509.896908
2026-04-19 38.984365 62.927648 104.121092 184.944640 352.478867 718.492591 1702.904891
2026-04-26 36.097351 59.158059 99.618571 180.935116 354.710763 749.306160 1868.183553
2026-05-03 33.461266 55.617972 95.211303 176.606075 355.660562 777.602729 2037.337444
2026-05-10 31.165354 52.495133 91.276299 172.735876 356.980640 807.045809 2220.737068
2026-05-17 30.796347 52.842437 93.907536 182.820020 392.029626 930.254905 2751.801232
2026-05-24 29.500088 51.350235 92.824918 184.789575 408.079948 1006.996689 3162.089523
2026-05-31 28.349970 50.038861 91.968494 187.135575 425.476387 1091.985444 3644.857789
2026-06-07 27.029874 48.295789 90.078015 186.896992 436.209157 1160.279366 4098.337725
2026-06-14 26.770803 48.606303 92.431065 196.814705 475.800902 1328.730143 5077.645352
2026-06-21 26.339634 48.534468 93.965684 204.983861 512.286181 1499.008983 6188.792637
2026-06-28 25.785654 48.166627 94.823566 211.602947 545.737755 1670.245092 7441.049029
2026-07-05 24.880309 47.004134 93.831113 213.412077 565.271035 1798.015194 8563.110512